Outward Journey / Inward Journey

Right.  So if everything bodes well (c’mon SallieMae), I will be departing the city for Philadephia on Thursday evening to volunteer for the Obama campaign and be a poll observer on Tuesday, in case the Nasty Party tries to stop anyone from voting (read this).

In exactly one week from now, the networks will be preparing to make their projections about the winner of various elections.  Even though I know no one cares, I thought it might be fun to attempt to predict the outcome.

In the Electoral College, I predict that John McCain will be defeated by Barack Obama by a vote of 326 to 212:

Bush (2004) states carried by Obama, West to East:

Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Iowa
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina

Kerry states carried by McCain:

Zilch.

In the popular vote, I predict Barack Obama will beat John McCain by 7.5%, 51.5% to 42%, with record-shattering turnout.

In the Senate, I predict that after next Tuesday we will know that the new make up will consist of 57 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and two independents.  I think it’s quite likely that Joseph Lieberman will either bolt or be expelled from the Democratic caucus soon.

Democratic pickups, West to East:

Alaska
Oregon
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire

Republican pickups:

Nada.

I further predict that the Senate race in Georgia will go to a run-off.

I predict that Democrats will pick up 25 to 27 seats in the House, setting the stage for a majority in that body which may last a generation.

Finally I predict that Democrats will take control of the New York State Senate, narrowly, for the first time in many, many years.

As it stands, I’m optimistic, but cautiously so.  I think the battle over Proposition 8 in California is a toss-up, although there have been encouraging signs for the ‘no’ side.

We’ll see house this pans out.