Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Electoral predictions

Right.  So if everything bodes well (c’mon SallieMae), I will be departing the city for Philadephia on Thursday evening to volunteer for the Obama campaign and be a poll observer on Tuesday, in case the Nasty Party tries to stop anyone from voting (read this).

In exactly one week from now, the networks will be preparing to make their projections about the winner of various elections.  Even though I know no one cares, I thought it might be fun to attempt to predict the outcome.

In the Electoral College, I predict that John McCain will be defeated by Barack Obama by a vote of 326 to 212:

Bush (2004) states carried by Obama, West to East:

Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Iowa
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina

Kerry states carried by McCain:

Zilch.

In the popular vote, I predict Barack Obama will beat John McCain by 7.5%, 51.5% to 42%, with record-shattering turnout.

In the Senate, I predict that after next Tuesday we will know that the new make up will consist of 57 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and two independents.  I think it’s quite likely that Joseph Lieberman will either bolt or be expelled from the Democratic caucus soon.

Democratic pickups, West to East:

Alaska
Oregon
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire

Republican pickups:

Nada.

I further predict that the Senate race in Georgia will go to a run-off.

I predict that Democrats will pick up 25 to 27 seats in the House, setting the stage for a majority in that body which may last a generation.

Finally I predict that Democrats will take control of the New York State Senate, narrowly, for the first time in many, many years.

As it stands, I’m optimistic, but cautiously so.  I think the battle over Proposition 8 in California is a toss-up, although there have been encouraging signs for the ‘no’ side.

We’ll see house this pans out.

Posted by Cody. at 00:45:46 | Permalink | Comments (2)

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Hard to do

To take the holy scriptures and read them is the first thing we have to do to open ourselves to God’s call.  Reading the scriptures is not as easy as it seems since in our academic world we tend to make anything and everything we read subject to analysis and discussion.  But the word of God should lead us first of all to contemplation and meditation.  Instead of taking the words apart, we should bring them together in our innermost being; instead of wondering if we agree or disagree, we should wonder which words are directly spoken to us and connect directly with our most personal story.  Instead of thinking about the words as potential subjects for an interesting dialogue or paper, we should be willing to let them penetrate into the most hidden corners of our heart, even to those places where no other word has yet found entrance.  Then and only then can the words bear fruit as seed sown in good soil.  Only then can we really “hear and understand” (Matthew 13:23).

-Henri J. M. Nouwen (1966) Reaching Out: The Three Movements of the Spiritual Life.  Doubleday, New York.  135-136.

Posted by Cody. at 03:36:04 | Permalink | No Comments »