Electoral predictions
In exactly one week from now, the networks will be preparing to make their projections about the winner of various elections. Even though I know no one cares, I thought it might be fun to attempt to predict the outcome.
In the Electoral College, I predict that John McCain will be defeated by Barack Obama by a vote of 326 to 212:
Bush (2004) states carried by Obama, West to East:
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Iowa
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Kerry states carried by McCain:
Zilch.
In the popular vote, I predict Barack Obama will beat John McCain by 7.5%, 51.5% to 42%, with record-shattering turnout.
In the Senate, I predict that after next Tuesday we will know that the new make up will consist of 57 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and two independents. I think it’s quite likely that Joseph Lieberman will either bolt or be expelled from the Democratic caucus soon.
Democratic pickups, West to East:
Alaska
Oregon
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Republican pickups:
Nada.
I further predict that the Senate race in Georgia will go to a run-off.
I predict that Democrats will pick up 25 to 27 seats in the House, setting the stage for a majority in that body which may last a generation.
Finally I predict that Democrats will take control of the New York State Senate, narrowly, for the first time in many, many years.
As it stands, I’m optimistic, but cautiously so. I think the battle over Proposition 8 in California is a toss-up, although there have been encouraging signs for the ‘no’ side.
We’ll see house this pans out.